Skipton Group outlook
CPI Inflation dropped back to the Bank of England’s target of 2.0% in May. We expect this may increase slightly throughout the rest of the year but remain close to the target. Service and wage inflation has remained higher than CPI in recent months, a key focus for the Bank of England. Both measures are expected to reduce in the near future. If that’s the case, this could allow the Bank of England to begin cutting Base Rate. Following the first 0.25% cut on 1 August, we expect a further 0.25% cut in Q4.
Despite predictions of a more subdued year for the mortgage market, 2024 has been encouragingly buoyant so far. Application volumes in the market year to date sit around 9% up year-on-year, with first-time buyers driving the highest proportion of demand. Mortgage rates remain elevated against historic lows (sub 1.00%) but with inflation falling and Base Rate expected to follow suit, this is reflected in mortgage product pricing, with the average market rate for a five-year fixed mortgage at 4.99%, and the current average rate for a two-year fixed rate mortgage at 5.37% (Source: Rightmove weekly mortgage tracker, 3 July 2024).
We are continuing to see strong demand for savings this year and expect that to continue throughout the rest of the year while interest rates remain higher. We are particularly seeing strong demand for ISAs, as customers look to make their savings as tax efficient as possible. With a large amount of market savings maturities in the second half of the year, we expect to see a lot of savers shopping around for the best rates. We also expect fixed rate demand to remain high and some of the demand may shift to longer term products as savers look to capitalise on higher rates for longer. This is particularly the case given a further anticipated Base Rate reduction in the second half of the year, where savings rates across the market will likely start to decrease.
House prices fell by less than expected in 2023 and we expect low growth for 2024. The market is expected to remain sensitive to mortgage rates, which has tempered demand somewhat, while supply has ticked up, with this increased supply expected to keep house prices in check. However, the steady flow of homes onto the market will likely support overall market health. Any Base Rate cuts, which would feed through to mortgage rates, will also further boost activity in the housing market.